Projected proportion of children and young people who are overweight/obese by 2020 revised downwards

The Foresight Report Tackling Obesities: Future Choices published in 2007 projected that, by 2050, 70 per cent of girls and 55 per cent of boys would be overweight or obese [1]. The National Heart Forum recently published a report on predicted trends in obesity in children using similar methods to the Foresight Report but showing different projections. The new projections are for 2020, and use data from the Health Survey for England for 2000-2007 whilst the Foresight Report used data from 1993 to 2004.

Projections for two to 11 year olds

• The results from the more recent dataset project that 17 per cent of boys and girls aged between two and 11 will be overweight in 2020; down from the Foresight Report projection of 22 per cent of boys and 34 per cent of girls.
• A further 13 per cent of boys and 10 per cent of girls are projected to be obese; down from the Foresight Report projection of 20 per cent of boys and 14 per cent of girls.
• This also means that the percentage of healthy weight children is now projected to be 70 per cent for boys and 72 per cent for girls compared to the previous projection of 57 per cent for boys and 52 per cent for girls.

Table 1: Predicted percentage of children aged 2-11 who will be a healthy weight, overweight or obese in 2020

Projections for 12 to 19 year olds

• The results for young people aged between 12 and 19, using data from 2000 to 2007, project that 18 per cent of males and 29 per cent of females would be overweight; down from the Foresight Report projection of 25 per cent for males and 35 per cent for girls.
• A further 6 per cent of males and 9 per cent of females are projected to be obese; down from the Foresight projection of 19 per cent for males and 30 per cent for females.
• This also means that the percentage of healthy weight children is now projected to be 76 for males and 62 per cent for females compared to the previous projection of 56 per cent for males and 35 per cent for females.

Table 2: Predicted percentage of young people aged 12-19 who will be a healthy weight, overweight or obese in 2020.

The reason for the decline could be due to changes in food intake and physical activity levels between the two time periods, and cohort effects. Cohort effects are likely to be present: for example, it may be that in recent years younger members of the two to 11 age group might have reduced numbers of overweight whilst older members with higher numbers of overweight move out of the group.

The results are encouraging but levels of overweight and obesity are still high and still projected to remain so. To help children maintain a healthy weight see our children’s health section and our children’s website www.greatgrubclub.com dedicated to four to seven year olds.

Reference

1. Foresight Report Tackling Obesities: Future Choices
2. National Heart Forum ‘Obesity trends for Children aged 2-11 – Analysis from the Health Survey for England'